The MOVE Index (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate) is the bond market equivalent of the VIX — measuring expected volatility in US Treasury bonds over the next 30 days.
Why it matters
Bond market volatility is often a leading indicator for stocks. The Treasury market is the world's largest financial market and provides the "risk-free" rate that prices every other asset. When MOVE spikes, it signals stress in the system's foundation.
How to read it
Below 80: calm bond market. 80-120: normal range. 120-150: elevated bond stress. Above 150: significant fixed-income volatility, often precedes stock market problems. The March 2020 spike preceded major Fed intervention.
What it means for your finances
High MOVE often means: mortgage rates are unstable (don't lock in panic), bond funds in your 401(k) may show losses, and credit markets are tightening (harder to get loans). Watch MOVE for early warning of broader financial stress.